How deadly is COVID-19? Early last year renowned epidemiologist Professor John Ioannidis published an analysis of seroprevalence (antibody) studies from 2020 which concluded the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 – the proportion of those infected who die – was around 0.15% globally. It varied significantly by region, up to 0.3%-0.4% in Europe and the Americas and down to 0.05% in Africa and Asia.
Prof. Ioannidis has now published an update, using additional seroprevalence studies, though still based on 2020 data, as “IFRs in 2021 may be further affected by wide implementation of vaccinations that may substantially decrease fatality risk and by other changes (new variants and better treatment)”. The new study has a special focus on the IFR in the elderly, but also includes estimates for all age groups, though not a new overall estimate.
From analysis of 25 seroprevalence surveys across 14 countries, Prof. Ioannidis and his colleague found the IFR varied from 0.0013% in the under-20s (around one in 100,000) to 0.65% in those in their 60s. For those above 70 not in a care home it was 2.9%, rising to 4.9% for all over-70s. This means that even for the elderly, more than 95% of those infected survive – 97.1% when considering those not in a care home. For younger people the mortality risk is orders of magnitude less, with 99.9987% of under-20s surviving a bout of the virus. These survival rates include people with underlying health conditions, so for the healthy the rates will be higher again (and the fatality rates lower).
The authors note that if you allow for antibody waning of 5% per month in the elderly then the IFR reduces to 2.4% for non-care home residents and 4% for all elderly. They add that IFR varies between countries, and this variation correlates with the proportion of the elderly who are over 85, suggesting much of the difference may be accounted for by the age of the population.
The authors conclude that the IFR of COVID-19 is substantially lower than in previously reported figures. The authors discuss several limitations of the study, including a consideration of doubts over the accuracy of deaths data from India.
The study’s findings confirm that Covid is a mild disease in all but a small minority of cases. With Omicron now reducing the severity several-fold further, even the proponents of lockdown should be able to accept that this virus is well below a level where restrictions are justifiable.
This article has been updated; an earlier version incorrectly stated that the new study was based on 2021 data.
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“Health Service bosses are now considering introducing a minimum age of seven…”
So that’s that sorted, then. Phew. Six, I didn’t have a clue. But once I had completed my seventh revolution of the Sun, I knew exactly what I was and what I wanted, even if it meant one plus one equalled four hundred and eight point three nine.
Remember, folks, they know what is best for your children, and if you are at all doubtful about or – heaven forbid! – refuse their offers of groundbreaking surgery, you are a very baaaaad parent.
I went into elementary school at seven and that was certainly before I recognized girls and boys as different kinds of human beings. This started to develop from my 3rd/ 4th year onwards (in Germany, elementary school – Grundschule – is four years).
Marcus A. Shades of Seutonious’ writing on your countryman who got up to mischief with juniors 150 years before your time. Tiberius would have been supportive of the Tavistock activities.
Instead of raising the minimum age for these referrals to seven, why not set up a mental health unit for parents who believe that children are somehow born into bodies, ie, come into being in some supernatural way after a complete body has developed by cell division starting from a fertilized egg and been born in the natural way which apparently didn’t yet contain ‘a child’? How can the child be materially different from the body and where did it come from if it isn’t part of what the this particular fertilized egg grew into naturally?
This is such an outrageous nonsense that it’s really hard to understand how people can fail to recognize this as the kind of science-jargon loaded religious creed it is.
Obviously religious people will say that a child’s soul entered the body at some point between conception and birth. If this is the case then at the very least God took His eye off the ball when he allowed a soul to enter the ‘wrong’ body.
Christian people will say that. But the Christian God is said to be merciful and just thus, wouldn’t pair souls with wrong bodies just for the joy of witnessing them suffer. But the transsexualists are not Christans, the official name of their religion is The Science™ and they claim that it really isn’t one despite it clearly (see above) is. What they have on offer is a demon or beast god seeking to torment humans for the fun of it. Seen from a Christian perspective, they’re Satan worshippers who claim that God doesn’t exist.
So, why precisely are Satan worshippers allowed to proselytize among children from kindergarten onwards with the intent to harm them?
My boy when 2 insisted on playing with a toy pink pushchair belonging to a friends little girl, we bought him one, we never considered he was in the wrong sex, I dread to think what would happen now. He is 30 now and very obviously male, and still enjoys fancy dress parties. The people who are behind this evil are using children to fill a gap in their own lives and mental health problems.
KIds may think they know what they want, but really don’t. How many kids want to be astronauts, doctors, vets etc. None at the age of 5 or 6 want to be a bin man or flip burgers for a living.
At the age of 18 kids become adults and at that point they can decide for themselves what they want to do.
When at school, I used to know a girl that was a total tomboy, and in later life realised she was lesbian. Today, she’d be whisked away to have hormone treatment and her chest strapped.
These experiments with kids are disgusting and should be illegal.